The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is regarded as the most prominent piece of federal climate legislation in the U.S. thus far. This paper investigates potential impacts of IRA on the power sector, which is the focus of many core IRA provisions. We summarize a multi-model comparison of IRA to identify robust findings and variation in power sector investments, emissions, and costs across 11 models of the U.S. energy system and electricity sector. Our results project that IRA incentives accelerate the deployment of low-emitting capacity, increasing average annual additions by up to 3.2 times current levels through 2035. CO2 emissions reductions from electricity generation across models range from 47%–83% below 2005 in 2030 (68% average) and 66%–87% in 2035 (78% average). Our higher clean electricity deployment and lower emissions under IRA, compared with earlier U.S. modeling, change the baseline for future policymaking and analysis. IRA helps to bring projected U.S. power sector and economy-wide emissions closer to near-term climate targets; however, no models indicate that these targets will be met with IRA alone, which suggests that additional policies, incentives, and private sector actions are needed.
Land-use conflicts may constrain the unprecedented rates of renewable energy deployment required to meet the decarbonization goals of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This paper employs geospatially resolved data and a detailed electricity system capacity expansion model to generate 160 affordable, zero-carbon electricity supply portfolios for the American west and evaluates the land use impacts of each portfolio. Less than 4% of all sites suitable for solar development and 17% of all wind sites appear in this set of portfolios. Of these sites, 53% of solar and 85% of wind sites exhibit higher development risk and potential for land-related conflict. We thus find that clean electricity goals cannot be achieved affordably without substantial renewable development on sites with potential for land use conflict. However, this paper identifies significant flexibility across western U.S. states to site renewable energy or alter the composition of the electricity supply portfolio to ameliorate potential conflicts.
The REPEAT Project’s revised analysis examines the climate and energy impacts of legislation passed by the 117th Congress, focusing on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021. Updated with the latest data from 2022, the analysis includes enhanced information on methane emissions in the oil, gas, agriculture, and forestry sectors. It presents three ‘Current Policies’ scenarios—’Conservative’, ‘Mid-range’, and ‘Optimistic’—to reflect uncertainties in law effectiveness and supply chain constraints. Additionally, it compares two benchmark scenarios: a ‘Frozen Policies’ scenario based on early 2021 policies, and a ‘Net-Zero Pathway’ scenario aligning with President Biden’s climate goals. The report covers greenhouse gas emissions, clean energy, electric vehicle deployment, fossil fuel use, and their impacts on energy costs, investment, employment, air pollution, and public health. The findings, which are approximate due to uncertainties, are updated regularly and have not been peer-reviewed.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) notably reduces costs for utility-scale solar and wind projects in the U.S. by expanding tax credits. Utility-scale solar and wind costs can decrease by about 60% with the PTC bonus rate, and offshore wind costs by around 20%. The 45X Tax Credit makes U.S.-manufactured solar and wind components more competitive than imports, potentially cutting solar module costs by over 30%. This legislation could generate significant job growth in the renewable sector, with an estimated 1.3 million additional solar jobs and 250,000 wind jobs by 2035. Overall, utility-scale solar and wind jobs could reach 1.7 million and 520,000 respectively. The IRA will also increase wages in these sectors and boost the demand for construction materials like aluminum, cement, and steel, with demands in some cases exceeding current U.S. consumption and production levels by 2035.
Recent research shows that the ‘Three Pillars’ standard (new supply, deliverability, hourly matching) is crucial for accurate carbon accounting in U.S.-subsidized electrolytic hydrogen production to prevent excess emissions. Some believe this standard’s costs could negate the $3/kg clean hydrogen tax credit from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), threatening the U.S. clean hydrogen industry. Others see the standard as essential to meet IRA’s emission goals, but worry it may hinder rapid electrolyzer deployment, necessary for long-term emission reductions. This perceived dilemma assumes that the ‘Three Pillars’ make early grid-connected hydrogen projects economically unfeasible. However, as outlined in this memo, such concerns are unsubstantiated, indicating that implementing rigorous emissions standards doesn’t necessarily compromise the viability of early hydrogen projects.
The REPEAT Project has finalized its analysis of the climate and energy impacts of key legislation from the 117th Congress, focusing on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 (IIJA). This report, updated with the latest data from 2021, includes enhanced evaluations of methane emissions in the oil and gas sector and opportunities for emission reduction in agriculture and forestry. The analysis introduces three ‘Current Policies’ scenarios—’Conservative’, ‘Mid-range’, and ‘Optimistic’—to account for uncertainties in IRA’s effectiveness and potential supply chain constraints. Additionally, it compares a ‘Frozen Policies’ scenario, reflecting laws as of early 2021, and a ‘Net-Zero Pathway’ scenario, aligning with President Biden’s goals to significantly reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and achieve net-zero by 2050. This brief report previews the final findings on these laws’ impact on the U.S.’s greenhouse gas emissions trajectory.
Fusion could be a part of future decarbonized electricity systems, but it will need to compete with other technologies. In particular, pulsed tokamak plants have a unique operational mode, and evaluating which characteristics make them economically competitive can help select between design pathways. Using a capacity expansion and operations model, we determined cost thresholds for pulsed tokamaks to reach a range of penetration levels in a future decarbonized US Eastern Interconnection. The required capital cost to reach a fusion capacity of 100 GW varied from $2,700 to $7,500 kW−1, and the equilibrium penetration increases rapidly with decreasing cost. The value per unit power capacity depends on the variable operational cost and on the cost of its competition, particularly fission, much more than on the pulse cycle parameters. These findings can therefore provide initial cost targets for fusion more generally in the United States.
The growing field of macro-energy systems (MES) brings together the interdisciplinary community of researchers studying the equitable and low-carbon future of humanity’s energy systems. As MES matures as a community of scholars, a coherent consensus about the key challenges and future directions of the field can be lacking. This paper is a response to this need. In this paper, we first discuss the primary critiques of model-based MES research that have emerged because MES was proposed as a way to unify related interdisciplinary research. We discuss these critiques and current efforts to address them by the coalescing MES community. We then outline future directions for growth motivated by these critiques. These research priorities include both best practices for the community and methodological improvements.
Achieving a net-zero emissions goal in the U.S. by mid-century requires a transformation of both the energy system and workforce. A new labor model, incorporating geospatial energy system projections, predicts that the transition could support 3 million direct energy jobs or $200 billion in wages annually in the next decade, growing to 4–8 million jobs or $200–500 billion in the 2040s. The energy workforce, 1.5% of the U.S. labor force in 2020, may increase to 2.5–5% by mid-century. The shift will cause boom-and-bust cycles in employment, with losses in fossil fuels balanced by gains in low-carbon sectors. The study also assesses workforce development needs, predicting larger scale changes than in past transitions. Factors like technology choice, infrastructure expansion, and political decisions will influence labor pathways, with most states potentially experiencing long-term workforce growth in energy, subject to regional variations and political bargaining.
Addressing global warming in line with the Paris Agreement, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) in the U.S. stands as a pivotal piece of climate legislation. It encompasses a broad array of programs, targeting clean energy, carbon management, electrification, efficiency, methane emission reduction, bolstering domestic supply chains, and addressing environmental justice. Understanding its complex impact on emissions and energy systems necessitates robust modeling. Analysis from nine advanced models suggests that the IRA might enable the U.S. to reduce emissions by 43 to 48% from 2005 levels by 2035. This multimodal approach provides critical data for international policymakers tracking Paris Agreement commitments and for U.S. policymakers aligning targets with necessary actions. Electric companies can use this analysis to determine the longevity of IRA incentives, linked to reducing electricity emissions. Additionally, it assists investors, technology developers, and companies in identifying market opportunities and planning for industry-specific developments.