Gabriel Mantegna

This Research Digest summarizes key findings and implications of the recent publication, “Uncertainty-Aware Grid Planning in the Real World: A Method Enabling Large-Scale, Two-Stage Adaptive Robust Optimization for Capacity Expansion Planning.”

Capacity expansion models are frequently used to inform multi-billion dollar grid infrastructure decisions, a context in which there is significant uncertainty surrounding the future need for and performance of such infrastructure. However, despite much academic literature on the topic, virtually no grid planning processes use capacity expansion models that endogenously consider uncertainty, an oversight which frequently leads to short-sighted infrastructure decisions. This is partially due to a technology transfer gap, but it is also due to a lack of methods that work at large scale. In this paper we introduce a method for endogenizing uncertainty into capacity expansion models, a variant of adaptive robust optimization, that addresses this gap. We apply the method to a real-world capacity expansion planning problem, that of the State of California, and compare its performance to that of traditional adaptive robust optimization. We find that both the traditional method and our method identify increased transmission investment as a key lever for increasing robustness and adaptability, while helping to avoid downside risks that current deterministic planning processes may be exposing ratepayers to. Our method performs similarly to the traditional method in terms of outcomes, while significantly reducing computational complexity, making it scalable to real-world planning problems.

Expanding transmission capacity is likely a bottleneck that will restrict variable renewable energy (VRE) deployment required to achieve ambitious emission reduction goals. Interconnection and inter-zonal transmission buildout may be displaced by the optimal sizing of VRE to grid connection capacity and by the co-location of VRE and battery resources behind interconnection. However, neither of these capabilities is commonly captured in macro-energy system models. We develop two new functionalities to explore the substitutability of storage for transmission and the optimal capacity and siting decisions of renewable energy and battery resources through 2030 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. Our findings indicate that modeling optimized interconnection and storage co-location better captures the full value of energy storage and its ability to substitute for transmission. Optimizing interconnection capacity and co-location can reduce total grid connection and shorter-distance transmission capacity expansion on the order of 10% at storage penetration equivalent to 2.5%–10% of peak system demand. The decline in interconnection capacity corresponds with greater ratios of VRE to grid connection capacity (an average of 1.5–1.6 megawatt (MW) PV:1 MW inverter capacity, 1.2–1.3 MW wind:1 MW interconnection). Co-locating storage with VREs also results in a 9%–13% increase in wind capacity, as wind sites tend to require longer and more costly interconnection. Finally, co-located storage exhibits higher value than standalone storage in our model setup (up to ∼43%–45%). Given the coarse representation of transmission networks in our modeling, this outcome likely overstates the real-world importance of storage co-location with VREs. However, it highlights how siting storage in grid-constrained locations can maximize the value of storage and reduce transmission expansion.

Multi-day energy storage (MDS), a subset of long-duration energy storage, may become a critical technology for the decarbonization of the power sector, as current commercially available Lithium-ion battery storage technologies cannot cost-effectively shift energy to address multi-day or seasonal variability in demand and renewable energy availability. MDS is difficult to model in existing energy system planning models (such as electricity system capacity expansion models (CEMs)), as it is much more dependent on an accurate representation of chronology than other resources. Techniques exist for modeling MDS in these planning models; however, it is not known how spatial and temporal resolution affect the performance of these techniques, creating a research gap. In this study we examine what spatial and temporal resolution is necessary to accurately capture the full value of MDS, in the context of a continent-scale CEM. We use the results to draw conclusions and present best practices for modelers seeking to accurately model MDS in a macro-energy systems planning context. Our key findings are: (1) modeling MDS with linked representative periods is crucial to capturing its full value, (2) MDS value is highly sensitive to the cost and availability of other resources, and (3) temporal resolution is more important than spatial resolution for capturing the full value of MDS, although how much temporal resolution is needed will depend on the specific model context.