Erin Mayfield

Currently: Assistant Professor, Dartmouth College; Formerly: Associate Research Scholar

Dr. Erin Mayfield is the Hodgson Family Assistant Professor at Dartmouth College in the Thayer School of Engineering.

Her research is in the areas of sustainable systems engineering and public policy. Her research focuses on three interacting research themes: multiobjective modeling, intergenerational & social equity, and climate mitigation & adaptation planning. The aim of her research is to develop computational decision support tools to address real-world problems and facilitate multi-stakeholder decision-making processes. Dr. Mayfield was an Associate Research Scholar and Postdoctoral Research Associate at ZERO Lab and the Energy Systems Analysis Group at Princeton University from 2019-2021, where she participated in several large-scale collaborations on infrastructure transitions, including the Net-Zero America Project and the REPEAT Project. She currently serves as a co-author of the Fifth National Climate Assessment and her research is regularly covered in national and local media such as the New York Times, The Atlantic, and National Public Radio. Mayfield has received several awards for her research such as the Rob Socolow Best Paper Award, American Chemical Society Editor’s Choice Award, and the Herbert L. Toor Doctoral Research Award. Prior to academia, Mayfield was a practitioner working with and in vulnerable communities on hazardous waste remediation, environmental litigation, and infrastructure planning. She has also held positions at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Congress, Princeton University, and Environmental Law Institute. She received her doctoral degree in engineering and public policy from Carnegie Mellon University, masters in environmental engineering from Johns Hopkins University, and bachelors in environmental science from Rutgers University.

Publications

Power Sector Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022

Environmental Research Letters, 2023

Erin Mayfield, Greg Schivley, Jesse Jenkins, Neha Patankar

10.1088/1748-9326/ad0d3b

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is regarded as the most prominent piece of federal climate legislation in the U.S. thus far. This paper investigates potential impacts of IRA on the power sector, which is the focus of many core IRA provisions. We summarize a multi-model comparison of IRA to identify robust findings and variation in power sector investments, emissions, and costs across 11 models of the U.S. energy system and electricity sector. Our results project that IRA incentives accelerate the deployment of low-emitting capacity, increasing average annual additions by up to 3.2 times current levels through 2035. CO2 emissions reductions from electricity generation across models range from 47%–83% below 2005 in 2030 (68% average) and 66%–87% in 2035 (78% average). Our higher clean electricity deployment and lower emissions under IRA, compared with earlier U.S. modeling, change the baseline for future policymaking and analysis. IRA helps to bring projected U.S. power sector and economy-wide emissions closer to near-term climate targets; however, no models indicate that these targets will be met with IRA alone, which suggests that additional policies, incentives, and private sector actions are needed.

Effects of Renewable Energy Provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act on Technology Costs, Materials Demand, and Labor

Working Paper, 2023

Erin Mayfield, Jesse Jenkins

10.5281/zenodo.7942444

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) notably reduces costs for utility-scale solar and wind projects in the U.S. by expanding tax credits. Utility-scale solar and wind costs can decrease by about 60% with the PTC bonus rate, and offshore wind costs by around 20%. The 45X Tax Credit makes U.S.-manufactured solar and wind components more competitive than imports, potentially cutting solar module costs by over 30%. This legislation could generate significant job growth in the renewable sector, with an estimated 1.3 million additional solar jobs and 250,000 wind jobs by 2035. Overall, utility-scale solar and wind jobs could reach 1.7 million and 520,000 respectively. The IRA will also increase wages in these sectors and boost the demand for construction materials like aluminum, cement, and steel, with demands in some cases exceeding current U.S. consumption and production levels by 2035.

Labor Pathways to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions in the United States by Mid-Century

Energy Policy, 2023

Erin Mayfield, Jesse Jenkins

10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113516

Achieving a net-zero emissions goal in the U.S. by mid-century requires a transformation of both the energy system and workforce. A new labor model, incorporating geospatial energy system projections, predicts that the transition could support 3 million direct energy jobs or $200 billion in wages annually in the next decade, growing to 4–8 million jobs or $200–500 billion in the 2040s. The energy workforce, 1.5% of the U.S. labor force in 2020, may increase to 2.5–5% by mid-century. The shift will cause boom-and-bust cycles in employment, with losses in fossil fuels balanced by gains in low-carbon sectors. The study also assesses workforce development needs, predicting larger scale changes than in past transitions. Factors like technology choice, infrastructure expansion, and political decisions will influence labor pathways, with most states potentially experiencing long-term workforce growth in energy, subject to regional variations and political bargaining.

Mission Net-Zero America: the Nation-Building Path to a Prosperous, Net-Zero Emissions Economy

Joule, 2021

Erin Mayfield, Jesse Jenkins

10.1016/j.joule.2021.10.016

The Biden administration aims to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 50%-52% below 2005 levels by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. These goals are attainable but require a collaborative, nation-building effort involving federal, state, local governments, the private sector, and communities to rapidly transform the U.S. energy system. While macro-scale energy modeling studies inform net-zero planning, they often lack the granularity needed to address real-world challenges. The Net-Zero America (NZA) study stands out for its detailed approach, offering spatial, temporal, and sector-specific pathways. These pathways rely on highly technologically ready solutions (Technology Readiness Level 6 or greater) and can achieve emissions targets akin to the Biden administration’s goals by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. The study reveals similarities among pathways over the next decade, with annual spending on energy services as a percentage of GDP remaining relatively constant throughout the transition.